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Expected move calculator: daily and 0DTE range from implied volatility

Options price in a range. Enter the price, the implied volatility and the number of days, and see the one-standard-deviation expected move and the range it implies, including for a 0DTE day.

How to use it

  1. Enter the underlying price (SPY, QQQ, ES, NQ or any stock).
  2. Enter the implied volatility as a percent (for example 16).
  3. Enter days to expiry (1 for a one-day or 0DTE view).
  4. Read the expected move, its percent of price and the range.
Expected move = price × IV × √(days ÷ 365)
Example. SPY 550, IV 16%, 1 day: 550 × 0.16 × √(1/365) ≈ ±4.61 (0.84%), so a range of about 545.39 to 554.61.

About this calculator

The expected move is the one-standard-deviation range implied by option prices, which covers roughly 68% of outcomes if returns are lognormal. It is not a forecast of direction, and prices move beyond it about a third of the time. LiquidityLevels expresses overnight ES and NQ levels in SPY and QQQ terms, so you can compare the range an options market implies with where futures sit relative to the prior close.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate the expected move?
Multiply the price by the implied volatility and by the square root of days divided by 365. For a one-day view on SPY at 550 with 16% IV that is about 4.61 points.
What is the 0DTE expected move?
The same formula with one day to expiry (some traders use the remaining fraction of the session). It describes the range options price in for that day, not a prediction.
Does the expected move predict direction?
No. It is symmetric and only describes the size of the range implied by option prices.

Comparing the options range with the overnight levels?

See SPY premarket levels: structure, key levels and catalysts in futures and SPY/QQQ terms, before the 9:30 ET open.

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Informational calculator for reference only. Outputs are arithmetic, not quotes, recommendations or trade signals. LiquidityLevels provides educational market commentary, not financial advice.